[Imc-beirut-editorial] Fwd: Bilal Elamine: Lebanon election report: Hizbullah & Beirut

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---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Bilal Elamine <zaloom33 at yahoo.com>
Date: Jun 3, 2005 12:27 PM
Subject: Lebanon election report: Hizbullah & Beirut
To: anticapitalists <anticapitalists at yahoogroups.com>


 
Hizbullah and the Beirut Poll 
June 2, 2005 

  

Armed resistance 

A dramatic series of events in the last few days. First, on the 5th
anniversary of the liberation of southern Lebanon, the irresistibly
charismatic leader of Hizbullah, Hassan Nasrallah, strikes a defiant
tone saying that it is "madness" to forcibly disarm the resistance. He
revealed for the first time that they have thousands of small rockets
("more than 12,000," according to Nasrallah) aimed at northern Israel
in case they get any ideas about invading again. He mocked proposals
to take away the heavy weaponry or storing it somewhere, but left the
door open for negotiations saying that Hizbullah is prepared for a
national dialogue that will reassure anxious Lebanese factions who
fear these weapons will one day be used against them.

Unfortunately for those seeking to disarm Hizbullah, the group has an
exemplary record of not committing a single provocation or massacre
against other Lebanese. All other parties to the civil war, including
latecomer General Michel Aoun, were probably responsible for one
atrocity or another. There were dire predictions, as I recall, that in
the wake of the retreating Israeli army from the South, Hizbullah
would commit unspeakable acts against Christians there given their
close collaboration with the occupation. In fact, Hizbullah's actions
were impeccable, I don't recall a single act of revenge in that time
and no Hizbullah action since has unnecessarily jeopardized Lebanon's
security.

Everyone here says that disarming the resistance is the next big thing
immediately after the elections. The US, which made sure that a clause
saying as much was included in UN Resolution 1559 calling for Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon, has strategically decided to leave the matter
to the post-election period and then pounce on Hizbullah with all the
pressure it can muster. There is a lot of speculation about possible
solutions, including such schemes as creating a "resistance brigade"
by merging Hizbullah into the Lebanese army, but most agree that the
issue is potentially explosive.

Certainly, and especially now that Syria is out, no military power
exists in Lebanon strong enough to forcibly disarm Hizbullah. Other
means must be found—what exactly is unclear so far. For its part
Hizbullah is using the elections to "fortify," as they say, their
position. It has struck electoral alliances with almost all factions,
asking for guarantees from its allies to defend the arms of the
resistance. Some genuine sympathizers have been forthcoming and many
have given lip service to the sanctity of the resistance—the Druze
leader Walid Jumblatt even spoke at the Hizbullah liberation rally
just before Nasrallah. But what the US has up its sleeve and how far
it is willing to go will determine how many will actually keep their
word.

Election time 

I got a chance to witness the Beirut parliamentary elections last
Sunday (the elections here are being conducted over the course of 4
Sundays starting May 29—the South is this coming Sunday, then Mt.
Lebanon followed by the North). Not surprisingly, the Harriri list led
by the son Saad, dominated. No one opposing them in all of Beirut's 19
seats was able to come close. Turnout at 28% was dismal, one of the
worst in recent history (including during the time of Syrians),
although many note that the highest turnout the country has witnessed
was 48%. This was also probably due to the fact that nearly half the
candidates were uncontested and few doubted who would win. The press
reported that many Beirutis spent election Sunday on the beach
instead.

The grand irony is that although this is theoretically Lebanon's first
truly free election in 30 years, many here feel that they are among
the least democratic. Most of the results are known because Lebanon's
powers-that-be patched the whole thing up before election time with
the full support of Washington. The ever-present US ambassador
here—who even showed up with some Congressmen to inspect a polling
site—could not but admit that the elections were lacking, yet insisted
that they take place on time.

Many Lebanese are convinced Washington could care less about the
fairness of the elections as long as they happen, so Bush can claim
yet another victory for the march of freedom in Middle East after the
invasion of Iraq. Most, however, accept as a given that Lebanon will
be controlled by one outside power or another—yesterday Syria, today
the US and France.

It now appears almost certain that the Harriri list and its allies may
very well possess a majority in Lebanon's new parliament—a first for
the country where the largest bloc in the 128-seat parliament was
Hizbullah's 12 MP's. But what they have in store for Lebanon remains
unclear. Of greatest concern to most Lebanese is, first, the economy
and how to handle the gigantic $44 billion debt (something like 184%
of the country's GDP, one of the highest in the world).

Then there is the question of how to handle US pressure to disarm the
resistance. Government corruption (which is responsible for much of
the debt) and Lebanon's entrenched sectarian political system also
rank at the top of Lebanese concerns. Then there is a host of other
not so minor issues stretching from what to do with the approximately
400,000 Palestinian refugees to devising a new election law the would
provide the country with some semblance of democracy in the next
elections.

It is worrying that the Harriri list has been either vague or has said
nothing at all about what it intends to do about these issues, with
the strikingly uncharismatic Saad pronouncing ad nauseam that they
stand for "dialogue and moderation." Their main focus, justifiably, is
to make sure that the remains of the Syrian security state—by which
Lebanon was ruled—is thoroughly cleansed from the Lebanese. So the
first order of business will be to force the resignation of Lebanon's
Syrian puppet president Emile Lahoud and a thorough purge of Lebanon's
intelligence services.

 Other matters, like the elections taking place right now, will most
likely "be cooked abroad," as they say here, and foisted on the
Lebanese from on high. The one ray of hope that has not been
extinguished in all the political maneuvering is that the great
majority (close to 80% of the population, according to one survey)
remain resolutely opposed to Lebanon's corrupt sectarian system and
want to see a secular order in its place.

To build on this sentiment, a small group of artists and activists
have founded Hayya Bina (www.hayyabina.org). We ran into them on the
streets of Beirut on election day passing out ballots that said "64
Muslims + 64 Christians [which is the way the Lebanese parliament must
be divided] = 0 Lebanese." This is a good start and a small
consolation to the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese youth who filled
the streets a few weeks ago hoping that a new dawn has finally
arrived. So far, Lebanon's new masters have shown us nothing but
darkness.

Bilal El-Amine