chrisahorton at yahoo.com
Sun Jan 28 16:00:03 PST 2007
I published a post, titled War Escalation Danger., about three hours ago. On the first try my browser locked up, but the second time I was informed by automatic reply that it had been published. I don't see it now. What happened?
(Text and headings copied below.)
chrisahorton at yahoo.com
40 Boyd St., Worcester, MA 01606
Title: War Escalation Danger.
Summary: We are winning the battle for public opinion around the Iraq war, but Bush may be preparing to expand the war by attacking Iran. We need to be ready for some serious mischief.
I am new to Worcester, and have been working with the local moveon.org group around the recent elections and ending the Iraq War. Yesterday I was thrilled to find nearly seventy demonstrators at Lincoln Square, young and old, in a festive mood despite the cold, and feeling (rightly) upbeat about the fact that we are winning the battle for public opinion around ending this misbegotten war. I have also been very impressed with the work that our Congressional delegates Kennedy, Kerry (recently) and especially Jim McGovern have been doing to end this war.
At the risk of being a Cassandra, I feel compelled to warn people about how and why I think Bush is going to turn the tables on us, so that we wont be caught by surprise.
The New York Times today (Jan.28) published a front-page article by David Sanger which details the advanced preparations the US is making for a large-scale attack on Iran information by the way that has been available to readers of European newspapers for months. Sanger, however, raises but doesnt address the obvious question: how can Bush pull this off when he has neither the troops, the money nor the political support he needs to win the war hes already got, never mind a new and larger one? Even many Republicans are turning away from him in disbelief, dismay and disgust as he tries to ramp up his war, but he insists that he (we) can and must win.
So is Bush crazy? A deluded fool? A loser playing out his last act? I don't think so. My model for understanding Bush is that he is a game-player, and a good one, in the biggest game around, the game of world power. (For support for this model, see the column by Maureen Dowd, NY Times, Jan. 11.) His strategy appears to be to preserve and expand U.S. dominance in the world by controlling the remaining oil reserves.
By the rules of the game, as they are being played now, Bush is beaten. To control Iraq, not to mention to defeat and bring about regime change in Iran, he needs more money, more political support, and a much bigger army, which would require a draft, a word he dare not even mention. But he has one good move left. He clearly expects and intends to win, so he can be expected to make that move.
To win this round, Bush has to change the rules of the game. Bush's one good move is to provoke, stage or arrange a major crisis, probably involving an outrageous event which can be blamed on Iran. Something that will let him go to Congress and the people and demand and get what he needs.
To get the draft, which he obviously needs, it would have to be something big.
I have no direct evidence that Bush is going to do this, but I've lived through enough world crises - I well remember the Cuban missile crisis - to know that it would work. (No, I dont remember the sinking of the Maine, but Ive read about it.) When I try to put myself in his shoes, I think that he is capable of doing this and that this is what he will do.
We must strongly urge our representatives to not get sucked into this trap, but to vote no if Bush demands another Congressional act of abdication from them, no matter what. But history tells us that in an atmosphere of war hysteria Congress will cave and give him what he wants.
In the meantime we must prepare ourselves, our friends and the circles of people we have influence with to keep our heads on straight in the midst of some serious craziness, to keep resisting, and to keep our faith in the possibility of a peaceful, just and sustainable world.
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