[Imc-worcester] Post

[Chris Horton]

I published a post, titled War Escalation Danger., about three hours  ago.  On the first try my browser locked up, but the second time I  was informed by automatic reply that it had been published. I don't see  it now.  What happened?
  
  (Text and headings copied below.)
  
  Chris Horton
  
  ***********************************
      Chris  Horton
      chrisahorton at yahoo.com
      207-992-3035  (c)
      40      Boyd St., Worcester,   MA 01606
      Title:  War Escalation Danger.
      Summary:  We are winning the battle for public opinion  around the Iraq war, but  Bush may be preparing to expand the war by attacking Iran.  We need to be ready for some serious  mischief.  
      **********************************
      I  am new to Worcester,  and have been working with the local moveon.org group around the recent elections  and ending the Iraq War.  Yesterday I was  thrilled to find nearly seventy demonstrators at Lincoln Square,  young and old, in a festive mood despite the cold, and feeling  (rightly) upbeat about the fact that we are winning the battle for  public opinion around ending this misbegotten war.  I  have also been very impressed with the work that our Congressional  delegates – Kennedy, Kerry (recently) and especially Jim McGovern –  have been doing to end this war.
      At  the risk of being a Cassandra, I feel compelled to warn people about  how and why I think Bush is going to turn the tables on us, so that we  won’t be caught by surprise.
      The  New York Times today (Jan.28) published a front-page article by  David  Sanger which details the advanced preparations the US is  making for a large-scale attack on Iran – information by the way that  has been available to readers of European newspapers for months.  Sanger, however, raises but doesn’t address the obvious question: how  can Bush pull this off when he has neither the troops, the money nor  the political support he needs to win the war he’s already got, never  mind a new and larger one?  Even many Republicans are turning away  from him in disbelief, dismay and disgust as he tries to ramp up his  war, but he insists that he (“we”) can and must win.
      So  is Bush crazy? A deluded fool?  A loser playing out his last  act?  I don't think so.  My model for understanding Bush is  that he is a game-player, and a good one, in the biggest game around,  the game of world power.  (For support for this model, see the  column by Maureen Dowd, NY Times, Jan. 11.)  His strategy appears to  be to preserve and expand U.S.  dominance in the world by controlling the remaining oil reserves.  
      By  the rules of the game, as they are being played now, Bush is beaten.  To  control Iraq, not to mention  to defeat and bring about regime change in Iran,  he needs more money, more political support, and a much bigger army,  which would require a draft, a word he dare not even mention.  But  he has one good move left.  He clearly expects and intends to win,  so he can be expected to make that move.
      To  win this round, Bush has to change the rules of the game.  Bush's  one good move is to provoke, stage or arrange a major crisis, probably  involving an outrageous event which can be blamed on Iran. Something that will let him  go to Congress and the people and demand and get what he needs. 
      To  get the draft, which he obviously needs, it would have to be something big. 
      I  have no direct evidence that Bush is going to do this, but I've lived  through enough world crises - I well remember the Cuban missile crisis  - to know that it would work. (No, I don’t remember the sinking of the Maine,  but I’ve read about it.)  When I try to put myself in his shoes, I  think that he is capable of doing this and that this is what he will  do.  
      We must strongly  urge our representatives to not get sucked into this trap, but to vote  “no” if Bush demands another Congressional act of abdication from them,  no matter what.  But history tells us that in an atmosphere of war  hysteria Congress will cave and give him what he wants.
      In  the meantime we must prepare ourselves, our friends and the circles of  people we have influence with to keep our heads on straight in the  midst of some serious craziness, to keep resisting, and to keep our  faith in the possibility of a peaceful, just and sustainable world.
    
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